BYD Targets 13% Growth in China After Sluggish Start — Analysts See Strong Recovery Ahead

BYD Targets 13% Growth in China After Sluggish Start — Analysts See Strong Recovery Ahead

SHENZHEN, China — Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD has set an ambitious target of 13% sales growth in its home market this year, despite a slow first quarter that saw deliveries fall short of expectations, company sources confirmed Thursday.

The automaker, which sold over 1.86 million passenger EVs in China last year, is now betting on a sharp rebound in the coming months fueled by new model launches, aggressive pricing, and government stimulus measures.

"We are confident we can achieve double-digit growth in China this year, even after a softer start," a BYD spokesperson told CleanTechnica, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Order intake has been accelerating since March, and our pipeline for the second half is robust."

Industry analysts largely back the projection. "BYD’s 13% growth target is achievable if they can sustain the current momentum," said Dr. Lin Feng, an EV market analyst at SinoAuto Insights. "The key factors are their expanded product lineup and the government's continued support for NEV adoption."

BYD's sales in China dipped 7% year-over-year in the first two months of 2025, partly due to the end of purchase tax exemptions and increased competition from rivals like Nio and Xpeng. However, March data showed a 15% month-over-month recovery, signaling a turnaround.

The company is also ramping up exports to offset domestic softness. In February, BYD’s overseas sales surged 55% year-over-year, and executives expect that trend to continue as it enters new markets in Europe and Southeast Asia.

Background

BYD has been the dominant player in China’s EV market for two years, holding roughly a third of the domestic battery-electric and plug-in hybrid segment. Its growth story has been built on vertical integration — BYD manufactures its own batteries, chips, and most vehicle components — giving it cost advantages over rivals.

However, 2025 began with headwinds. The Chinese government phased out some EV purchase incentives, and a price war among automakers squeezed margins. BYD responded by slashing prices on its best-selling models, including the Yuan Plus and Qin Plus, by up to 15% in January.

That strategy appears to be working. Weekly insurance registration data tracked by Citi Research shows BYD’s retail sales have risen for five consecutive weeks through mid-April. "The price cuts have reignited demand," said James Li, an automotive analyst at Bernstein. "We expect BYD to guide for strong sequential growth in Q2."

What This Means

If BYD achieves its 13% growth target, it would reinforce its position as the world’s largest EV maker by volume, ahead of Tesla. It would also signal that China’s EV market retains strong underlying demand, even after the stimulus pullback.

For global investors, BYD’s recovery is a bellwether for the broader Chinese EV sector. "If BYD can hit its China target, that’s a positive read-across for the entire supply chain," said Dr. Lin. "It suggests the market is far from saturated."

However, risks remain. Intensifying competition and potential trade tariffs on Chinese EVs in Europe and the U.S. could dampen export growth. BYD is also facing pressure to improve margins as it keeps prices low.

"The 13% goal is achievable, but it's not a slam dunk," warned analyst Li. "BYD will need strong execution on both product and pricing."

More details are expected when BYD reports first-quarter earnings next month. Investors will be watching closely for any adjustments to the full-year guidance.