Climate and Energy: US-China Talks on Oil and a Supercharged El Niño Loom

Two major themes dominate the global climate and energy landscape this week: the high-stakes US-China discussions in Beijing that touched on oil supply and energy security, and a mounting scientific consensus that a powerful El Niño could supercharge extreme weather events worldwide. Meanwhile, notable shifts in Ethiopia’s transport sector and the UK’s international climate finance are reshaping the clean energy narrative. Here’s a comprehensive look at the key developments.

US and China Discuss Energy Amid Tensions

During a two-day meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in Beijing, energy emerged as a central topic. According to Reuters, Trump administration officials raised the possibility of China purchasing more US crude oil as a response to supply disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday that the two nations had discussed China “buying more US energy,” adding that production from Alaska would be a “natural” fit for the Chinese market. The South China Morning Post also reported that Trump and Xi agreed on the necessity of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open to “support the free flow of energy.”

Talks Focus on Oil Imports and Strait of Hormuz

The discussions underscore the intertwined nature of global energy markets, especially amid geopolitical instability. With the Iran war straining oil routes, the US is seeking to strengthen its own exports while ensuring critical chokepoints remain navigable. China, as the world’s largest importer of crude, stands to gain from a reliable supply chain. The agreement to maintain freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz reflects a rare convergence of interests between the two superpowers, despite their broader trade and strategic rivalries.

Climate Cooperation Views Divergent

Ahead of the talks, the Communist party-affiliated People’s Daily published an article arguing that addressing climate change requires “coordinated efforts and cooperation” between the US and China. State-run China Daily echoed this sentiment, noting that cooperation on energy security and climate governance is “essential” because the two countries hold “considerable influence over international institutions.” However, an analysis on Legal Planet offered a counterpoint, highlighting that the Trump-Xi meeting had no formal climate agenda and that the two countries are now moving in “radically different directions” on climate policy. This divergence raises questions about whether energy talks can serve as a bridge for broader environmental collaboration.

El Niño Could Amplify Global Extremes in 2026

Scientists are sounding the alarm about an impending “supercharged” El Niño event that could amplify climate extremes, from wildfires to heatwaves and flooding. Climate Home News reported that experts warn the El Niño weather pattern could significantly worsen the frequency and intensity of disasters already driven by human-caused climate change.

A ‘Very Strong’ Event Likely

According to an average of four separate weather forecasts cited by The Times, there is an 82% chance of a “very strong” El Niño forming this year. Making matters worse, The Independent noted that this event could be “supercharged” by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a related climate phenomenon that often amplifies drought and fire risks across the Indian Ocean basin. The combination of a robust El Niño and a positive IOD raises the odds of extreme drought, wildfires, and flooding in many parts of the world, particularly in Australia, Southeast Asia, and the Americas.

Record Fire Outbreaks Already Seen

The impact is already measurable. Reuters reported that global fire outbreaks hit a “record high” in Africa, Asia, and elsewhere this year. Conditions are expected to worsen to the “highest in recent history” if a strong El Niño “kicks in.” Data compiled by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) research group, cited by the newswire, shows that more than 150 million hectares of land were damaged by fires from January to April—20% more than the previous record for that period. These figures highlight how even before El Niño fully materializes, the planet is experiencing unprecedented fire activity.

Global Climate Briefs

Two other stories from the past week illustrate contrasting trends in the global shift to cleaner energy.

Ethiopia’s Electric Vehicle Adoption

According to the Associated Press, electric vehicles (EVs) now account for 8% of Ethiopia’s car fleet. This surprising statistic reflects how soaring fuel prices and chronic shortages are compelling African nations to embrace cleaner, cheaper transport alternatives. Ethiopia has become a leader in the region, using policy incentives and import restrictions to accelerate EV uptake. The move not only reduces greenhouse gas emissions but also alleviates the burden of fuel imports on the country’s economy.

UK Cuts Green Climate Fund Contribution

In a different development, Climate Home News reported that the United Kingdom has halved its most recent contribution to the UN’s Green Climate Fund (GCF). The decision is part of the UK government’s broader shift from development aid to military spending, as per Carbon Brief. As a result, the UK is no longer the top donor to the GCF, a position it had held since the fund’s inception. The cut raises concerns about the availability of international climate finance for developing countries, especially as extreme weather events become more costly and frequent.

These two stories underscore the uneven progress in climate action: while some nations like Ethiopia are leapfrogging to clean transport, others are scaling back their financial commitments to global climate resilience. The coming months, with a likely El Niño and ongoing US-China energy diplomacy, will test the world’s ability to balance energy security, climate mitigation, and international cooperation.